Voter support shifts as Finland’s Greens gain ground in new poll

A fresh opinion poll by Finnish public broadcaster Yle shows narrowing gaps at the top as the Green League’s bold opposition strategy yields results, while governing parties face declining support ahead of upcoming elections.

Though Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Antti Lindtman has positioned himself as the next prime minister in recent speeches, his party’s approval ratings have fallen for the second consecutive month, reversing earlier gains. The combined support for the ruling coalition—comprising the National Coalition Party, Finns Party, Swedish People’s Party, and Christian Democrats—appears to have stabilised after a sharp decline, but no party can afford complacency.

Governing parties struggle despite budget compromises

The poll coincides with the government’s final budget framework session, where decisions included raising patient fees at health centres while increasing tax deductions for household expenses and reducing employees’ travel cost deductions. Opposition parties condemned the measures as a “chilling failure,” though some voters may have been reassured by promised investments in construction and infrastructure.

An alternative interpretation suggests citizens, accustomed to austerity, viewed the latest cuts as less severe than previous ones. The Finns Party, despite losing over six percentage points since the 2023 parliamentary elections, remains in close contention for third place. Recent data indicates slight gains among voters with low education levels, though support has halved among those with only basic or vocational schooling compared to 2023.

During budget negotiations, the Finns Party emphasised reducing renewable fuel distribution mandates in response to rising petrol prices—a proposal rejected by coalition partners, as the government programme already committed to increasing these mandates. Such disagreements are likely to resurface as elections near.

A recent example saw Education Minister Anders Adlercreutz (Swedish People’s Party) surprise allies by proposing to shift school summer holidays and add a week in April—a move not agreed upon within the coalition. National Coalition Party MP Mia Laiho criticised the announcement to Helsingin Sanomat, suggesting Adlercreutz was “getting a head start” on campaigning.

Greens’ combative stance pays off

While overall shifts in support remain modest, the most notable changes occur among mid-sized parties. The Green League, unlike the Left Alliance, had not previously capitalised on its opposition status—but spring polls now show signs of recovery.

The party’s more assertive approach was on display in late April, when Green chair Sofia Virta clashed with Finns Party Health Minister Wille Rydman on Yle’s A-studio over government cuts to social and healthcare funding. The heated exchange, which drew rebukes even from Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (National Coalition) for its tone, appears to have resonated: the Greens now poll at 9.1%, their highest Yle rating since the 2023 elections, when they secured just 7% of the vote.

The Greens’ earlier slump may stem from core issues like climate and environmental policy being overshadowed this term. However, as elections approach, the party’s renewed visibility suggests it is regaining lost ground.