Liberals’ gamble on Sweden Democrats ministers has yet to pay off

A strategic shift by Sweden’s Liberal Party to accept Sweden Democrats (SD) ministers in government has failed to boost its support, with new polling showing the centre-right bloc’s deficit widening, Swedish public broadcaster SVT reports.

Four weeks after the Liberals reversed their long-standing opposition to SD cabinet members—a move designed to attract tactical voters—opinion data from Verian shows the gap between the left and right blocs growing again. The trend risks discouraging right-leaning voters from lending their support to the Liberals, who rely on such tactical votes to retain parliamentary representation.

The entire centre-right Tidö coalition has trailed in polls since the 2022 election, and with five months until the next vote, the opposition’s lead is expanding. For the Liberals, already struggling near the 4 percent threshold for parliamentary seats, the development is particularly troubling. To secure tactical votes, the party must demonstrate that backing it could help keep the right bloc in power—a harder sell as the opposition’s advantage grows.

Moderates hit seven-year low

The Moderate Party, the bloc’s largest member, has recorded its weakest polling in seven years, dipping below 17 percent—though the drop remains within the margin of error. The decline could further reduce incentives for Moderate voters, who often cast tactical ballots, to switch allegiance to the Liberals.

Centre Party gains from SD scepticism

The Centre Party, which continues to reject cooperation with SD, appears to be the unexpected beneficiary of the Liberals’ shift. Polling now shows the party matching its 2022 election result, suggesting some SD-sceptic voters—particularly women and urban academics—are gravitating toward the only non-socialist party still ruling out SD collaboration.

Both the Social Democrats and the Centre Party are likely to exploit concerns over SD’s influence in government, while the Tidö coalition will counter by highlighting divisions on the left and the chaos of the previous red-green administration.