Finland accuses Russia of orchestrating migrant crisis at its eastern border
Intelligence received by Finland suggests that Russian authorities have instrumentalized migrants at the Finnish eastern border, a situation unprecedented in Europe. Chancellor of Justice Tuomas Pöysti explains that the difference between this situation and the ongoing migrant crisis on the borders of Poland and Lithuania is that these countries have not provided evidence of “very active actions by a foreign power.” However, in Finland’s case, the influx was orchestrated by the security service, according to Pöysti.
The intelligence comes from numerous sources, including Finnish military intelligence, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service, the Border Guard, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, EU intelligence, NATO, and Finland’s allies.
Colonel Aapo Cederberg, a cybersecurity expert, considers this significant, as it indicates Finland is the first European country to be targeted by Russia’s instrumentalized immigration. This is part of Russia’s hybrid influencing concept, which aims to create a surprise effect by not executing the same actions everywhere. Though Cederberg does not have access to the intelligence information, he sees no reason to doubt its veracity.
According to Cederberg, the principles of Russia’s hybrid warfare aim to create confusion, challenge political decision-makers, and create uncertainty among the citizens of the targeted country. Therefore, actions are executed differently in different countries. Cederberg suggests that the border crisis is likely orchestrated by Russia’s internal security and intelligence service, the FSB, but this cannot be definitively proven.
Cederberg offers several reasons why Finland may be targeted. When Finland joined NATO, Russia announced that it would take military-technical actions against the country; instrumentalizing migrants in a hybrid operation would fit into such actions. Another reason is that Finland’s overall security and national defense level is higher than in many other European countries, which would require more demanding actions to challenge this status. Cederberg believes that Russia is closely watching if the exceptional law on repatriation passes and plans to test its functionality if it is approved by the parliament.