Future Easter holidays will see far less snow, Norwegian climate agency warns

Future Easter holidays in Norway will have significantly less snow, with snow cover becoming far less likely in many regions by the end of the century, according to projections from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).

The agency’s research, conducted with the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, shows that areas currently experiencing an 80–100% chance of snow at Easter will see that probability drop below 10% by 2071–2100. The findings were reported by Norwegian news agency NTB.

Higher elevations needed for reliable snow
By the late 21st century, skiers in southern and central Norway will need to climb to around 850 metres above sea level to find the same likelihood of Easter snow that currently exists at 500 metres. In northern Norway, the snow line will rise from 150 metres to 350 metres.

Oslo’s popular Marka forest area, which now has a 66% chance of Easter snow, will see that drop to just 12%. The city centre will have almost no snow at Easter in future.

“Snowy winters will become rarer”
While occasional heavy-snow winters will still occur, they will be less frequent, said NVE researcher Tuomo Saloranta. “To find the same snow conditions as before, people will need to travel higher into the mountains.”

The projections assume continued high greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are reduced, the changes would be less severe, Saloranta noted.

Biggest declines in western and northern Norway
The largest reductions in spring snow depth—over one metre less by 2100—are expected in western Norway and Nordland county. Coastal and lowland areas will see the shortest ski seasons and least snow.

Currently, much of Norway enjoys an 80–100% chance of Easter snow, but this will shrink dramatically. “The most significant changes in the ski season are expected in lowland and coastal areas,” the NVE report stated.