Finnish research reveals forest carbon sink overestimation amid logging challenges

Recent research from the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke) has found that Finland’s forest carbon sinks have been overestimated. Previously, changes in land use shifted Finland’s status from a carbon sink to a carbon source. The amount of carbon absorbed by forests is no longer enough to offset emissions from agriculture and other land uses.

Syke’s new tool indicates that Finland must significantly reduce logging if it aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. The sustainable logging volume should be between 60 to 62 million cubic meters annually. In 2022, however, logging was down to 68.6 million cubic meters, lower than in previous years. According to a government assessment, the carbon neutrality target outlined in climate legislation could be met with an annual logging volume of approximately 80 million cubic meters, which is 25% higher than Syke’s estimate.

The situation is further complicated by the halt in wood imports from the east due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Syke estimates that the net carbon sink from land use should be around 21 million tons of CO2 by 2035. Instead, from 2021-2022, Finland experienced a net emission of 4 million tons.

Achieving the 2035 target appears increasingly challenging. Syke’s lead researcher, Sampo Soimakallio, noted that without limits on logging, reaching this goal could become almost impossible unless significant breakthroughs occur in other emission sectors. He also emphasized that the current government under Prime Minister Orpo has decided to lower the biofuel distribution obligation, which could make achieving carbon neutrality even more difficult.