Tactical votes help drive Liberals’ surge, SVT analyst says

The Liberals’ surge in opinion polls is likely being driven in part by tactical voting among Moderates, SVT political commentator Mats Knutson writes in an analysis published by SVT.

The party’s rise continued in SVT and Verian’s final voter survey before Sunday’s election. Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson’s strategy of openly appealing for support votes appears to have gained traction, particularly after Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson recently issued an ultimatum.

Mohamsson has repeatedly argued that a continued Tidö government would not be possible without the Liberals in parliament. However, uncertainty surrounding the opinion polls means the party cannot take victory for granted.

The surveys point to three clear trends: the Liberals are gaining, the gap between the political blocs is narrowing and the Social Democrats are losing support.

The Social Democrats’ decline in the SVT and Verian survey is not statistically certain. But the party is now at such a low level that, if the figure were an election result, it would be its worst since universal suffrage was introduced more than a century ago.

The Social Democrats are losing support both to other red-green parties and across the bloc divide. Knutson writes that this may explain the narrowing gap between the blocs and could lead to questions about the party’s strategy of building its campaign around leader Magdalena Andersson. Uncertainty over the question of government formation may be another reason for the decline.

The Moderates are losing voters primarily to the Liberals and are now at historically low levels, comparable to their 2002 election result, which has been described internally as a disaster. A result at this level would likely lead to a difficult internal debate for Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson after the election.

The red-green parties still lead in the SVT and Verian survey, but by a narrow margin. A DN and Ipsos poll showed the blocs in more or less a dead heat. Nearly 10 percent of respondents remain undecided.

According to a Novus post-election analysis of the 2022 election, 19 percent of voters made their decision during the final election weekend. The result on Sunday therefore remains highly uncertain.