Finland faces a ‘cancer tsunami’ by 2045, warns oncology chief

Cancer diagnoses among Finns over 85 will nearly double by 2045, according to Maarit Bärlund, head of oncology services for the Pirkanmaa well-being region, who describes the coming surge as a “cancer tsunami.”

The overall prevalence of cancer in Finland is projected to rise by 45% by 2045, with the total number of new cases increasing by roughly a quarter. In 2024 alone, nearly 40,000 new cancer cases were recorded.

Bärlund warns that without significant action, the growing burden will strain diagnostic and treatment pathways, risking delays in patient care. Cancer treatment routes are already under pressure, particularly in diagnostics, where bottlenecks frequently occur.

She stresses that treatment must be tailored to individual needs, with age being less critical than overall health, functional capacity, and existing conditions. For frail elderly patients, aggressive cancer treatments may not be appropriate; instead, symptom-focused care may be the better option to avoid unnecessary suffering.

A national cancer strategy for 2026–2035, developed with Bärlund’s input, is now being implemented. A roadmap outlining concrete measures, timelines, resources, and roles will be published this year to support its goals.

Currently, Finland lacks data on how quickly cancer patients access treatment across different well-being regions, making it difficult to assess equality in care. Bärlund calls for an up-to-date overview of cancer treatment and access to ensure no gaps remain.

Prevention, particularly through enhanced screening programs, will be key to mitigating the coming surge. Bärlund points to colorectal cancer screening as a success: initial increases in detected cases have since declined as early interventions reduced advanced disease.

As cancer becomes more common, she adds, greater attention must be paid to managing the financial costs of treatment.