Sweden’s ruling coalition faces historic swing to retain power, poll analysis shows

Sweden’s four-party centre-right coalition would need an unprecedented late surge in support to hold onto government after September’s election, according to an analysis by public broadcaster SVT of the latest voter sympathy survey from Statistics Sweden (SCB).

The opposition bloc currently leads by a clear margin, the SCB data reveals, leaving the governing Tidö parties—comprising the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—facing a deficit that dwarfs the 2010 election, often cited by right-wing strategists as proof of a recoverable gap.

“A historic shift in voter sentiment would be required for the Tidö parties to retain power,” SVT political commentator Mats Knutson concluded. The sole remaining variable is the roughly one-fifth of voters who remain undecided, though even their collective support would fall short of closing the gap under current projections.

The analysis follows SCB’s latest monthly tracking, published Thursday, which showed opposition parties holding a decisive lead ahead of the 2026 vote.