Finland’s defence chief warns against over-speculating on Russian attack intentions

Finland’s defence commander, Janne Jaakkola, has cautioned against excessive speculation about Russia’s potential plans to launch an attack in Europe, despite ongoing public debate over a possible “window of opportunity” for Moscow, Yle reports.

Speaking at the Baltic Sea Region Forum in Turku, Jaakkola stressed that any assessment of Russia’s willingness and capability to initiate an offensive should be based on solid evidence. “We should have very strong grounds for analysis before claiming that Russia is both willing and able to launch an attack,” he said.

His comments follow widespread discussion in Western media—including a recent Politico analysis—about whether Russia might test NATO’s defences while the US reduces its military presence in Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also warned of a possible attack, while Estonia’s foreign intelligence agency recently dismissed claims that Russia was planning an offensive this year.

Jaakkola acknowledged that Russia remains a “dangerous” actor in the Baltic Sea region, despite its military being heavily engaged in Ukraine. While its ground forces are tied up in logistics for the war, he noted that Russia’s navy and air force remain operational and ready for action.

On the Arctic, where Russia holds a dominant position, Jaakkola emphasised the need for NATO’s presence to be based on real threats and verified intelligence to avoid wasting resources across the vast region. He described the Arctic as an area of “strategic depth,” whereas the Baltic Sea represents a higher-risk flashpoint due to its proximity and escalation risks.

Recent incidents involving drones in the Baltic Sea highlight the rapid pace of decision-making in the region, increasing the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation, Jaakkola said.

His remarks come as the US shifts more defence responsibility to Europe, announcing plans to withdraw at least 5,000 troops from Germany. “What this will mean in practice remains to be seen, but for Europe, this is a moment of truth in securing its future deterrence and defence,” Jaakkola added.