Hormuz Strait deadlock continues as expert warns only negotiations can secure shipping routes

The standoff over the Hormuz Strait remains unresolved, with no viable solution other than diplomatic negotiations, according to Olli Ruohomäki, a visiting senior expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

The strait—a critical chokepoint for global oil trade—has become a leverage point for Iran, Ruohomäki told Yle, as Tehran and Washington remain far apart in their demands. A two-week ceasefire between the two sides is set to expire this week, leaving the situation precarious.

“If the Hormuz Strait is not reopened by mutual agreement, how can we prevent Iran from using asymmetric warfare—such as drone strikes or sabotage—to target shipping?” Ruohomäki said. He warned that a forced reopening by the U.S. could create lasting instability, making the strait unsafe for civilian vessels.

Instead, Ruohomäki argued, the only sustainable path forward is a negotiated deal backed by an international maritime peacekeeping operation to maintain security in the waterway.

Iran uses Strait as leverage, while U.S. demands shift

Iran has repeatedly used the Hormuz Strait as a bargaining chip, with its Revolutionary Guard capable of restricting access. Last Friday, Tehran announced the strait would remain open to all shipping during the ceasefire, only to reverse course the following day, citing continued U.S. blockades on Iranian ports. Washington, in turn, refuses to lift sanctions without a broader agreement.

Ruohomäki noted that despite military setbacks and targeted killings of its leadership, Iran has shown resilience in the standoff. The situation could worsen if Yemen’s Houthi rebels—allied with Iran—begin controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another key maritime route.

Hardline rhetoric complicates diplomacy

Both sides have adopted uncompromising positions, with former U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly claiming a deal was imminent, while Iranian officials dismissed the notion. Ruohomäki attributed the deadlock to maximalist demands and shifting U.S. objectives, particularly the insistence that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons—a condition now linked to the strait’s status.

The Revolutionary Guard’s dominance in Tehran, coupled with its lack of diplomatic experience, has further hardened Iran’s stance, he explained. Meanwhile, U.S. leadership under Trump employed far more confrontational rhetoric than during the Obama era, when the 2015 nuclear deal was brokered.

Ceasefire nears end as broader conflicts loom

The current ceasefire, agreed on April 8, is due to expire Wednesday. Ruohomäki dismissed recent talks in Islamabad as preliminary, emphasizing that decades of hostility cannot be resolved in a single meeting.

He also highlighted the interconnected conflicts in the region, including tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran insists must be part of any comprehensive settlement. Israel, however, views Hezbollah as an existential threat, making reconciliation between the parties highly unlikely.

Without a negotiated solution, Ruohomäki warned, the strait’s reopening would remain unstable, requiring a sustained maritime peacekeeping mission to ensure safe passage for global shipping.