Finland has narrowly avoided catastrophic drone strikes due to luck, analysis finds

Finland’s authorities failed to detect an armed drone carrying explosives over the country’s airspace before it was found on a frozen lake, raising serious concerns about preparedness, writes crime and justice reporter Jesse Mäntysalo in an analysis for public broadcaster Yle.

The drone, identified as Ukrainian-made and equipped with a combat warhead, was discovered on Tuesday near the border between Parikkala and Kitee in North Karelia. It marked the third such incident in recent days—following drones found in Kouvola on Sunday and Luumäki, where one may have detonated mid-air.

Experts estimate these drones could carry up to 50 kilograms of explosives. A direct hit on a residential building would likely destroy it, while an impact in a populated area could cause mass casualties. Yet according to the latest reports, no authority detected the Parikkala drone until it was spotted on the ice by the Border Guard on Tuesday morning.

Authorities admit limitations
At a Sunday press briefing, Air Force Commander Timo Herranen had assured the public that Finland possessed “sufficient capability to respond” to drones. The Parikkala case now undermines that claim.

When questioned by Yle on Wednesday, the Defence Forces declined to confirm whether the drone had been tracked by radar or detected in flight, citing operational secrecy—a stark contrast to their openness just days earlier.

Jyri Kosola, former head of research for the Defence Forces and a non-fiction author, explained to Yle that radar surveillance networks struggle to reliably detect drones due to their small size and slow speed, which can cause them to blend in with birds.

Even Herranen acknowledged that 100% protection against drones is impossible. No public emergency alert was issued for Sunday’s incidents, as authorities claimed the criteria for warnings were not met. For Tuesday’s drone, no alert was possible because it went undetected until after landing.

Delays in response
The police were only notified of the Parikkala drone in the afternoon, hours after the Border Guard’s discovery. Had the drone struck an apartment block, school, or daycare, it remains unclear whether any warning would have reached the public in time.

For now, Finland appears to have dodged a devastating drone-related disaster by sheer chance.