Polling shows Samfylkingin leads ahead of 2024 elections in Iceland

The latest poll from Maskína reveals significant insights ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections in Iceland. The ruling party, Samfylkingin, maintains the strongest support at 22.2%. Following them, Viðreisn has seen a notable increase in backing, currently holding 16.2%. The Miðflokkurinn ranks third at 15.9%, while the Sjálfstæðisflokkur trails closely with just under 14%. Meanwhile, the party Flokkur fólksins has made impressive gains, rising to 9.3% in the polls.

In contrast, the Píratar and Vinstri græn appear to be struggling. According to Maskína, these parties are unlikely to secure seats based on national support levels. However, detailed district analysis indicates that the Píratar could potentially win a seat in the Suðvesturkjördæmi at the expense of the Samfylkingin.

The survey was conducted between October 22 and 28, 2024, gathering responses from 1,708 randomly selected individuals. While the leading party’s advantage is significant, there is no notable difference in support for the next three parties: Viðreisn, Miðflokkurinn, and Sjálfstæðisflokkur, whose margins are tight.

If the elections were held today, seats would likely be distributed as follows: Samfylkingin with 17, Viðreisn and Miðflokkurinn both at 12, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn at 10, Flokkur fólksins at 7, and Framsókn with 5. Further district-specific analyses are ongoing to clarify how many seats each party may actually secure.