Iceland’s political landscape in flux as President Halla Tómasdóttir meets party leaders after government collapse

Iceland’s political landscape is currently in flux following a government collapse on Sunday. President Halla Tómasdóttir is expected to announce her next steps after meeting with Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson yesterday morning. Following their discussion, she has not addressed the media.

Halla met with all party leaders represented in the Parliament on the same day, but she remains silent on the details of their conversations. Today, she will meet with Birgir Ármannsson, the Speaker of the Alþingi, at 9 a.m. All parliamentary sessions scheduled for the day have been postponed.

Time is of the essence as Halla must respond to Bjarni’s request for elections on November 30 before the Parliament can be dissolved. If she chooses to dissolve the Parliament today, the latest possible election date is November 23, 2024, adhering to the stipulation that elections must occur within 45 days of a dissolution.

Political science professor Ólafur Þ. Harðarson notes that Halla has considerable discretion in this situation. It is anticipated she will approve Bjarni’s proposal to dissolve Parliament, as all parties support it.

However, uncertainty looms regarding whether Bjarni will resign along with his cabinet. During a recent debate, he suggested he would step down but did not specify when. The Left-Greens, under Svandís Svavarsdóttir, have expressed they will not participate in a caretaker government led by Bjarni, favoring an interim administration headed by Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson of the Progressive Party instead.

Halla’s decision will determine the immediate political direction of Iceland, with two main pathways emerging: a caretaker government led by Bjarni, possibly without Left-Green ministers, or a provisional government under Sigurður Ingi. Both scenarios have historical precedents in the country.