Swedish unemployment to fall slowly, forecasts Public Employment Service

Unemployment in Sweden is expected to decline gradually, reaching around 6% next year, according to a new forecast by the Public Employment Service (Arbetsförmedlingen).

Marcus Löwing, a labour market analyst at the agency, said the recovery is ongoing but slow, with pre-downturn levels not expected until the second half of 2027.

Currently, 339,000 people, or 6.4% of the workforce, are registered as unemployed. The forecast predicts this will drop to 328,000, or 6.1%, on average in 2027, with a faster decline possible in the latter half of the year.

Drivers behind the expected job growth include increased household consumption and a rise in housing construction, Löwing said. The construction and manufacturing sectors show positive hiring plans, while parts of the private service sector, such as hotels and restaurants, also express cautious optimism.

Public sector trends are mixed: education faces fewer jobs due to shrinking student cohorts, while healthcare continues to struggle with shortages of qualified staff.

Despite high unemployment, employers report difficulty finding suitable workers. Long-term unemployed with weak labour market ties and limited education are expected to remain at high levels, with their share potentially rising.

Löwing stressed the importance of targeted support, such as training, internships, and subsidised employment, to prevent existing labour market imbalances from worsening during the next upturn.

The forecast is based on Statistics Sweden (SCB) surveys of over 20,000 workplaces and their hiring plans for the first quarter of 2026.