Nato’s most vulnerable point identified as Poland-Lithuania corridor

European intelligence services warn that Russia could launch an attack on Nato within a year, with multiple sources pointing to the Suwałki Corridor—a strip of land between Poland and Lithuania—as the most vulnerable target, according to a joint investigation by SVT, DR, NRK, and Delfi.

The corridor, wedged between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, is seen as critical in potential Russian military planning. A former Russian defence ministry official confirmed its central role in Moscow’s war scenarios against Nato.

Nato documentation reviewed by the media partners also identifies the Swedish island of Gotland as a potential Russian target in such an operation. An intelligence source stated that Russian control of Gotland would severely restrict Nato’s freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea and dramatically reduce its ability to reinforce the Baltic states by sea.

Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must), acknowledged Gotland’s strategic and operational significance in Russian planning but declined to specify scenarios. Nato’s Baltic commander, Brian Nissen, called the Suwałki Corridor “the place where everything hinges.”

Russia has denied any offensive plans, insisting its military buildup is defensive.