Lolland municipality expects 8 percent population fall by 2035

A new population forecast for Lolland Municipality projects an eight percent decline in residents by 2035, equivalent to 3,087 people, according to Danish broadcaster DR.

The sharpest drop is expected among children and teenagers aged 0 to 16, whose numbers are predicted to fall by 15.8 percent. The working-age group (17 to 66) is forecast to shrink by 11.1 percent, while the share of residents aged 67 and older is set to increase by 1.8 percent.

Deputy Mayor Merete Meyer of the liberal Venstre party said the forecast must be taken seriously and called on the municipal economy and business committee to explore new ways to attract residents. “I hope the committee will put effort into looking at new alternatives and finding new ways to attract newcomers so that our settlement efforts can bear more fruit than they have so far,” she said.

Per Møller, a 71-year-old former parish priest in Maribo, said the outlook did not surprise him. He has watched people leave Lolland for years, emptying rural areas and small parishes. “It is one of the best-kept secrets how wonderful it is to live on Lolland. It is a wonderful place,” he said, adding that he hopes more businesses and cultural institutions will draw new residents in the future.

Jannik Lose, 62, who has lived on Lolland almost his whole life, described the forecast as bleak. “It looks black for Lolland, to put it bluntly. People are not eager to move education here where there are not many people, so it becomes hard to attract more,” he said.

Researchers point to several reasons for the predicted decline. Peter Fallesen, a research professor at the Rockwool Foundation, said the age composition is the primary factor. The average age in Lolland is about 50, compared with 43 for Denmark as a whole, meaning fewer people of childbearing age. Education levels also play a role: “In Lolland Municipality the education level is relatively low compared with the rest of the country, and it is very much those with long educations who have children, so we must also expect fewer children to be born in Lolland,” Fallesen said.

Helle Nørgaard, a senior researcher at Aalborg University’s Department of the Built Environment, said the shift toward a knowledge society has driven young people away to attend universities concentrated in larger cities. However, she noted that the forecast is based on current conditions and that developments such as the Fehmarn Belt project could improve the outlook. “A prognosis projects from where we stand right now. But with the things we can see already underway down there now, for instance the Fehmarn Belt, it could well go in a better direction,” she said.