Swedish finance minister warns of potential fuel rationing due to Middle East crisis

Sweden’s finance minister has warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could lead to fuel rationing, as global oil supplies face disruption. The comments come amid a reduction in Sweden’s food VAT rate, intended to ease household costs.

Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson (Moderate Party) told public broadcaster SVT that the situation at the Strait of Hormuz—where shipping routes are effectively blocked—could push energy prices higher and ultimately force rationing measures.

“The Strait of Hormuz is more or less closed. Our resources are finite, and if supply decreases, it can affect prices and potentially lead to some form of rationing,” Svantesson said. “We’re preparing for things to get worse.”

She stressed that while Sweden is not yet at that stage, the government is planning for severe scenarios, including fuel rationing. “If the absolute worst happens, it could get significantly tougher,” she added, expressing hope that the conflict would end soon.

The warning follows a cut to Sweden’s food VAT rate from 12% to 6%, which the minister said would save an average family around 6,500 SEK (approx. 570 EUR) annually. However, rising costs tied to the Middle East crisis could offset those savings.

“We know inflation could rise due to this crisis,” Svantesson said. “Lowering the food VAT now helps strengthen household finances.”

Christian Kopfer, a commodities analyst at Arctic, told SVT that if the current situation persists, gasoline prices could surge to 25–30 SEK (2.30–2.80 EUR) per litre by summer, potentially triggering rationing. He noted that around 10–15% of global oil supply is currently off the market.

“It’s enough for conditions to stay as they are—or worsen—for us to face rationing,” Kopfer said, comparing the crisis to the early stages of Russia’s war in Ukraine, though he noted today’s supply constraints are more severe.