Ukrainian drones likely entered Finland due to technical failure, not Russian interference

Two Ukrainian drones that crashed near Kouvola, Finland, on Sunday probably strayed off course because of a technical or mechanical malfunction, according to Mikko Hyppönen, research director at Sensofusion, a company specialising in drone detection and countermeasure systems.

Hyppönen told public broadcaster Yle that such failures could include a jammed rudder or a crash in the navigation computer. “It is reasonable to assume these drones got stuck in a fixed flight direction and simply flew until they ran out of fuel,” he said.

Ukraine has carried out multiple drone strikes on Russian oil terminals in the Baltic Sea in recent days. Last week, drones also veered off course into Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Hyppönen noted that Ukraine has launched dozens of relatively inexpensive drones toward the Baltic Sea in recent days. “When dealing with large numbers of fairly cheap drones, it’s not surprising that some malfunction.”

Technical issues more likely than jamming
Finland’s government and Ukraine’s embassy in Helsinki have attributed the Kouvola incident to Russian electronic and satellite navigation interference. While Hyppönen acknowledged this as a possibility, he considered it less likely.

Russia has long conducted satellite navigation jamming in the Gulf of Finland, prompting Ukraine to design its drones to withstand such interference as effectively as possible. “Russia’s attempts—and likely successes—in disrupting GPS and other satellite signals alone would probably not cause this kind of deviation,” Hyppönen said.

At least one of the drones that crashed in Finland has been identified as an AN-196 attack drone, which does not rely on radio signals for guidance. Hyppönen explained that the AN-196 uses inertial navigation, calculating its position based on its starting point. Over long distances, minor errors can accumulate, causing the drone to drift off course.

The drone is also equipped with a camera to identify targets by matching terrain features, though this method has limitations in darkness or poor visibility.

Ukraine’s drone range extends deep into the Baltic
Russia has claimed that Baltic states allow Ukraine to use their airspace for drone strikes, an allegation the Baltic nations have firmly denied. Hyppönen stated that Ukraine does not need NATO airspace for such operations, as drones like the AN-196 have a range exceeding 1,000 kilometres.

“Ukraine has steadily expanded its long-range capabilities throughout the war. At this point, it can deploy drones from central Ukraine all the way to the Gulf of Finland—and theoretically even farther north,” he said.

The drones likely reached Finland by flying low through Belarusian and Russian airspace, staying below radar detection.