Finnish president shifts from optimism to pessimism on Ukraine peace under Trump

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has adopted a far more pessimistic outlook on Ukraine’s prospects for peace and transatlantic relations under a potential second Donald Trump presidency, The Telegraph reports in an interview marking a year since their last meeting.

Stubb, who famously played golf with Trump in Florida in early 2023, had previously expressed cautious optimism about US-EU cooperation to counter Russia. At the time, he suggested Trump might align with Europe to impose tough sanctions on Moscow if Vladimir Putin refused a ceasefire in Ukraine, the British newspaper recalls.

But in a new interview with The Telegraph’s David Blair in London, Stubb struck a markedly different tone. While remaining polite, the president appeared “more serious and thoughtful,” the paper notes, acknowledging that his earlier optimism had given way to realism.

“I think I’m more pessimistic now—in that sense, more realistic,” Stubb told the newspaper. His assessment of transatlantic ties has shifted from guarded optimism to a grim four-word mantra: “Save what can be saved.”

The president attributed the change to fundamental shifts in US policy toward its allies, citing relaxed sanctions on Russia—now reportedly netting Moscow an extra $150 million daily from higher oil prices—and Washington’s failure to reinstate stricter measures. The recent escalation in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, has only reinforced his view that Europe must adapt to a new reality.

Stubb confirmed he had spoken with Trump following the Iran strikes but declined to disclose details, stating only: “All I can say is that I choose my battles. And my war is the war in Ukraine.” His current stance contrasts sharply with his advice a year ago, when he urged Europeans to “relax, take a nice bath, go to the sauna, breathe deeply, and engage with Trump rather than disengage.”

Asked whether he had been too optimistic in 2023, Stubb replied, “This is the reality we Europeans have to live with.”