Researchers assess rising sea temperatures’ impact on Atlantic hurricanes

Researchers have investigated the impact of rising sea temperatures on Atlantic hurricanes. By comparing the theoretical intensity of hurricanes with their actual recorded strengths, they have assessed the contribution of global warming throughout the 20th century. The analysis indicates that from 2019 to 2023, thirty hurricanes intensified by one category on the five-point scale, with three reaching level five. Hurricanes in 2024 also exhibited increased strength, including Hurricane Milton, which struck Florida in October.

Daniel Gilford from Climate Central highlighted that record ocean temperatures, attributed to human-induced carbon emissions, exacerbate the disasters caused by hurricanes.

Michel Tjernström, a meteorology professor at Stockholm University who did not participate in the study, affirmed the findings align with researchers’ suspicions. He noted the challenge in assessing hurricanes or typhoons, which are intense weather events that attract significant scrutiny. Due to their size, they are difficult to incorporate into climate models, making it hard to determine whether their frequency or intensity is increasing in a warming environment. This study employs an indirect method to link potential intensification to rising sea surface temperatures and demonstrates a clear distinction.

Tjernström emphasized that while the study shows storms are becoming, on average, stronger, it does not imply that hurricanes are occurring more frequently. He cautioned against directly attributing individual hurricane events to global warming, suggesting that different storms would arise in a world without climate change. The research has been published in a peer-reviewed environmental journal.