Poll reveals shifting political landscape in Iceland as Social Democratic Alliance sees support decline

In a recent Gallup poll conducted from October 1 to 31, 2024, the Social Democratic Alliance remains the largest party in Iceland, although its support has decreased from 26% in September to 24%. The Independence Party has seen a rise in support, now at 17.4%, up from 14%. The Center Party follows closely with 16.5%, while the Progressive Party retains about 6%. The new poll shows increased backing for the liberal party, Reform, which has gained nearly 14% support, up from 10%.

Support for the Left-Green Movement has dropped to around 4%, placing them outside parliament if elections were held today. The Socialist Party has 4.5% support, translating to one potential seat, while the People’s Party remains stable at around 8%. The Democracy Party has less than 1% support.

The exit from the governing alliance appears to have favored Reform, which recorded 11.1% support in the first two weeks of October but surged to 14.9% in the last two weeks post-termination of the coalition led by Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson. In contrast, the Left-Greens have declined, registering 4.9% in the first half of October before falling to 3.6% as the month progressed.

The results imply significant changes in Iceland’s political landscape, with the Social Democratic Alliance projected to secure 18 seats, the Independence Party 12, the Center Party 11, and Reform 9 seats if elections were held today. Collectively, coalition parties, including the Progressive Party, would lose 21 seats compared to prior elections.