Calculations challenge farmers’ fears over nitrogen law

Danish broadcaster DR reports that a controversial nitrogen law is unlikely to eliminate profits across Danish agriculture, despite farmers’ claims that it could force half of them out of business.

Farmers demonstrated outside Christiansborg on Tuesday morning wearing green caps bearing the slogan “Fired by the state”. The Folketing is expected to adopt the law on Thursday.

Calculations by think tank CERI estimate that between 3 and 4 per cent of Danish farms could be hit so hard that farming would temporarily become unprofitable. That estimate excludes compensation planned for affected farmers.

About 1.2 billion kroner has so far been allocated to compensate farmers. CERI says the money is intended to offset an estimated short-term loss of around 11 per cent in farms’ operating margins.

Andreas Lund Jørgensen, deputy department director at CERI, said farmers would have to be particularly unlucky or already be operating on the edge of profitability for the law itself to push them into losses.

“This is not the end of Danish agriculture. There will still be plenty who can continue operating at a profit,” he said. He added, however, that the changes would affect people who had invested their lives and finances in their farms.

Economist says environmental gains outweigh costs

Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, an environmental economist at the Economic Council and a professor at the University of Copenhagen, said she recognised the broad economic consequences expected for agriculture in the short term.

The long-term aim is to move production to places where it causes less harm, she said, but some farmers would be hit hard, particularly if they wanted to continue farming in the same way as before.

She also pointed to the benefits of significantly reducing nutrient levels in the sea. Denmark is obliged to improve the ecological condition of its seas and waterways, where it is lagging behind, she said.

Restoring the marine environment could also benefit the Danish economy and the public. Studies estimating the value of nature and the environment put the value of a healthy water environment at around 3 billion kroner, Jacobsen said, exceeding the estimated costs.

Farmers’ organisation rejects calculations

Bæredygtigt Landbrug, the agricultural organisation that led the demonstration, rejected CERI’s estimates. Its slogans included “False facts. Real dismissals” and “Fired based on spreadsheets”.

Director Jørgen Evald Jensen said the figures were completely detached from reality. He cited the example of a cattle farmer who would have to leave 20 per cent of his land uncultivated and import feed because the maize currently grown for the cattle produces too much nitrogen.

Jensen acknowledged that cattle can eat grass, which can also be better for the water environment, but said the farmer would still have to import feed in that case.

“This is so far-reaching in terms of running and optimising a farm. I cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel,” Jensen said.