Sweden’s climate target gap widens to 8 million tonnes

Sweden’s emissions fell by 3 percent in 2025, yet the gap to its EU transport target has grown from 5.8 million to 8 million tonnes, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.

The agency reported total emissions of 46.7 million tonnes for 2025, a decrease from 2024 but from a higher baseline, complicating progress toward climate goals. Roger Sedin, head of the agency’s climate targets unit, cited slower electrification as a key factor, linked to reduced biofuel blending mandates and tax cuts that made fossil fuels more competitive.

When previously undetected nitrous oxide emissions from heavy trucks are included, the shortfall to the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) transport target for 2030 expands to 13.1 million tonnes. The agency noted that updated calculation methods may similarly affect other EU member states’ progress.

“I think the wallet has a lot to say here,” Sedin said, suggesting that price signals remain critical to accelerating electrification.