Moderates accuse Social Democrats of “bluffing” on welfare cuts amid poll slump

Sweden’s Moderate Party has accused the opposition Social Democrats of spreading false claims about welfare cuts, as new polling shows the centre-right Tidö coalition trailing by 12.6 percentage points, according to public broadcaster SVT.

Speaking at a press briefing titled “Time to expose the Social Democrats’ bluffs”, Moderate election campaign leader Martin Borgs alleged the Social Democrats were “drumming in the lie” that welfare services had been reduced under the current government. “Every year we’ve been in power, healthcare has received more money,” added party secretary Karin Enström.

However, an SVT review of regional finances found that despite increased nominal funding, Sweden’s regions recorded deficits in both 2023 and 2024 before a slight surplus in 2025. The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKR) attributed the shortfalls to rising pension costs driven by inflation, with state subsidies failing to fully offset the increases.

Pressed on whether their claims accounted for inflation, both Borgs and Enström avoided direct answers. Borgs instead highlighted the government’s success in reducing inflation from 10% to 2% since taking office, arguing this had left regions with “far more money” overall. When asked explicitly if welfare funding had risen in real terms, he replied: “More money has been allocated to welfare.”

A Moderate Party spokesperson later confirmed to SVT that their figures referred to nominal increases, stating in a text message that full inflation compensation “would have led to higher inflation,” and that “our primary task was to combat inflation to reduce costs.”

The exchange comes as the Tidö parties—Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Sweden Democrats—face their weakest combined support in over two decades, with the Moderates polling at 17.6%, their second-lowest SCB result in 20 years.