Spring flood in Finnish Lapland forecast to be lowest on record

This year’s spring flood in Lapland may reach historically low levels due to colder post-May Day weather slowing snowmelt and rising water levels, according to a joint forecast by the Lapland Centre for Economic Development and the Finnish Environment Institute.

Snowpack across the region is also thinner than usual, with gradual melting expected over an extended period. Among Lapland’s major rivers, only the Muonio River is predicted to experience an average spring flood, with peak flow anticipated in late May. The river’s snow water equivalent remains close to long-term averages, though melting has only just begun.

The Tornio River, which saw exceptional flooding three years ago, is now forecast to reach lower levels than last year—potentially setting a record low. The Ounas River is also expected to see below-average flooding, with peak levels in Kittilä remaining well below the damage threshold.

On the Kemijoki River, this year’s flood peak could become the smallest in recorded history, both in the upper and lower sections. Water levels in Lake Kemijärvi, which have been unusually low for months, are rising but are only expected to reach typical summer levels by mid-May. Early ice melt has made the low water visibly apparent.

The Ivalo and Teno rivers are similarly forecast to see smaller-than-average floods. Inari Lake’s water levels are beginning to rise, with summer levels projected by early June. On the Teno River, cold weather has slowed rising flows, delaying the flood peak until late May.