Finland’s emergency supply agency publishes hypothetical war scenario with Russia

The National Emergency Supply Agency of Finland has released a previously classified hypothetical scenario outlining the potential consequences if Finland were drawn into a war with Russia. The agency said the purpose is to encourage broader business preparedness for extreme crises, though it stresses that a military conflict remains unlikely.

The scenario, published on Tuesday, describes rolling blackouts, disrupted fuel distribution, failing payment systems, and severed communication networks. Prices would surge as foreign trade collapses, critical medicines would face shortages, and care services would be forced to shut down. Many foreign specialists would leave the country, the agency’s report states.

According to agency director Janne Känkänen, public discussion has focused heavily on military threats but less on how vital societal functions would be secured in a worst-case scenario. The scenario was initially shared confidentially last year with companies deemed critical to emergency supply but is now being made available to a wider range of businesses and authorities.

The goal is to support preparedness and training for wartime conditions, ensuring different actors have a shared understanding of potential threats. The agency emphasises that national defence relies not only on troops and equipment but also on functioning electricity grids, hospitals, telecommunications, and logistics. Disruptions on the home front would directly impact the battlefield, while civilian successes would bolster military capabilities.

Experts from the Finnish Defence Forces, the Finnish Transport and Communications Agency’s Cyber Security Centre, and the Finnish Safety and Chemicals Agency contributed to developing the scenario.