No risk of ice age in Finland despite slowing ocean currents, says expert

A new study suggesting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) could slow by up to 58 percent by 2100 has raised concerns, but Finland’s climate will not face extreme cooling, according to research professor Timo Vihma of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, as reported by Yle.

Amoc, the system of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream, transports warm water toward northern Europe. While a recent study from the University of Bordeaux estimates the circulation could weaken by 42–58 percent by the end of the century, Vihma considers a 30 percent slowdown more plausible based on broader climate models.

“We absolutely cannot talk about an ice age, nor about Finland adopting a Siberian climate,” Vihma stated, addressing fears of drastic cooling. Earlier extreme scenarios had suggested Finnish temperatures could drop by up to 10°C if Amoc collapsed, but Vihma dismisses these as unlikely, noting they stem from misinterpreted research.

A 2024 study in Science Advances—often cited for alarming projections—did not actually predict future climate but instead modeled an artificial Amoc shutdown to observe potential warning signals. Vihma explained that the study excluded greenhouse gas warming and used exaggerated freshwater inputs, distorting its real-world applicability.

More credible research, including a 2025 Nature study, indicates Amoc will not halt completely due to stabilizing winds and Antarctic upwelling. A 2022 Science paper also ranked Amoc as an unlikely “tipping point” in climate systems, though its behavior remains the most uncertain among such thresholds. While Amoc could theoretically stop if global warming reaches around 1.7°C, Vihma stressed that a full collapse would require nearly 4°C of warming—a scenario he deems improbable.

For Finland, Vihma anticipates a “few degrees” of winter cooling at most if Amoc weakens significantly, with Norway and Iceland facing greater impacts due to their closer proximity to the North Atlantic. Summers in Finland, meanwhile, will continue warming under greenhouse gas influences. He emphasized that exploring worst-case scenarios remains valuable for preparedness, even if their likelihood is low.