Swedish government’s emissions claims present misleading picture, analysis shows

The Swedish government’s statements that emissions will fall by 2026 and decline in three out of four years of its term are misleading, according to an analysis by public broadcaster SVT Nyheter. Official projections suggest total emissions over the four-year period will in fact be higher than if levels had remained unchanged since the government took office in 2022.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has repeatedly claimed Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions will be lower in 2026 than in 2022, while Climate Minister Romina Pourmokhtari has stated emissions are set to decrease in three of the four years of the government’s term. However, SVT’s calculations—based on the government’s own forecasts—show cumulative emissions from 2022 to 2026 will reach 183.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, compared to 180.7 million tonnes if emissions had stayed flat at 2022 levels.

The government’s latest climate report, included in its final budget of the term, acknowledges Sweden is on track to miss all its climate targets, both long-term goals and those set for 2030. While emissions have declined during every government term since the mid-1990s, current projections indicate 2026 levels will match those of 2022 at roughly 45.2 million tonnes—effectively stagnating rather than decreasing.

Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson, responsible for the climate report, told SVT the focus should remain on “continuing the direction of reducing emissions.” Pourmokhtari, currently on parental leave, previously defended the government’s record, stating it had made “very good investments in the electricity needed for emissions to keep falling.”

The forecasts, compiled primarily by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, carry “significant uncertainty,” meaning final figures could still shift. The government has declined SVT’s repeated requests for an interview with Kristersson to clarify his claims.