US goals in Iran conflict unclear as war risks global economic fallout, warns expert
The three-week-old war between the US-backed Israel and Iran has escalated into a broader regional conflict, with strikes now targeting civilian energy infrastructure and threatening global trade routes, according to Juha Mäkelä, director of the Finnish Institute for the Middle East.
Speaking to Yle’s morning programme Ykkösaamu, Mäkelä warned that the conflict risks becoming a decades-long reconstruction burden, particularly if Yemen’s Houthi rebels join the fighting. “If the Houthis enter the war, global trade through the Suez Canal would effectively halt,” he said, noting that the closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would sever key shipping lanes between Asia and Europe.
Mäkelä described the US objectives in the conflict as “unclear from the outset,” suggesting initial hopes of collapsing Iran’s regime had given way to shifting goals. While President Donald Trump could claim partial success—having crippled Iran’s naval capabilities, degraded its ballistic missile systems, and neutralised its air force—Mäkelä noted that the deployment of additional US Marines to the region may signal efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
The war’s expansion into energy infrastructure marks a dangerous escalation, Mäkelä stressed. “International law prohibits attacks on energy targets,” he said, explaining that the cycle of strikes began after Israel hit Iranian production facilities, prompting Tehran to declare all Persian Gulf Arab states’ energy sites as legitimate targets.
Iran’s political system has proven more resilient than expected, Mäkelä observed, with its Revolutionary Guard forming a “securocracy” of hundreds of decision-makers. Early Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and nearly 50 of his inner circle failed to destabilise the regime, contrary to US and Israeli assessments.
The conflict’s economic ripple effects are already being felt. Disruptions to shipping could add 10–15 days to global trade routes, driving up commodity prices. Energy costs, in particular, have become a political liability for Trump ahead of midterm elections, Mäkelä added.
While Iran relies on its “Shia axis”—including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Iraq—its regional allies have yet to fully mobilise. The Houthis, despite their capability to block the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have so far remained on the sidelines, a development Mäkelä called “surprising.” Their entry, however, could trigger a global economic crisis.
Israel’s closest regional allies, Bahrain and the UAE—both signatories to the 2020 Abraham Accords—are now reassessing their reliance on US protection, Mäkelä noted. “There’s discussion in these countries about needing to do more themselves.”