Swedish Social Democrats face weaker hand with Andersson as campaign focus

Sweden’s Social Democrats are again centring their election campaign around party leader Magdalena Andersson, but her declining approval ratings and a resurgent rival in Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson make the strategy riskier this time, writes SVT Nyheter political commentator Elisabeth Marmorstein in an analysis.

The party’s 2022 election approach—framing the vote as a de facto “presidential” contest between Andersson’s experience and Kristersson’s lower trust ratings—backfired, delivering its second-worst modern result. Yet strategists are repeating the playbook for 2026, despite Andersson’s approval now just four points ahead of Kristersson’s, down from a wide margin in 2022.

Her decline spans both the centre-right Tidö bloc (where waning support is expected) and the left-green camp, particularly among Left Party voters: only 50% now trust her, compared to 80% in 2022. Meanwhile, Kristersson’s approval has climbed sharply among Sweden Democrat voters, from 47% to 67%.

Marmorstein notes that while incumbent leaders often lose ground in opposition, the narrowing gap suggests a tighter race. The Social Democrats’ bet on Andersson as their core asset—while downplaying policy pledges to ease coalition talks—faces steeper odds this cycle.