U.S. dependence on Russian uranium fuels speculation after elections

It has been over a thousand days since Russia initiated its invasion of Ukraine. While the conflict continues without resolution, Russia has emerged victorious in one regard: the U.S. presidential elections. The Russian state nuclear energy corporation Rosatom, along with its subsidiary Tvel, dominates the global market for enriched uranium. At its peak, Russia’s share was nearly half (44 percent), and last year it accounted for 35 percent, valued at $2.7 billion, with France and the Netherlands far behind.

The dependence of the United States on Rosatom’s uranium fuel is significant—around 35 percent. In the previous year, $1.1 billion worth of Russian enriched uranium was imported. The U.S., the largest uranium market in the world, produces a mere 10 percent of its consumed enriched uranium. This imbalance is mirrored in Western OECD nations, which make up approximately 75 percent of uranium consumption but only produce 25 percent.

Despite being a leading military and technological power, the U.S. has not invested adequately in its uranium enrichment capacity. Instead, it has relied on cheap Russian fuel for its commercial nuclear plants. The outgoing President Biden has allocated $2.7 billion to develop new nuclear technologies to sever ties with Rosatom. Recently, the Senate and Biden passed a unanimous import ban on Russian enriched uranium for commercial nuclear plants, valid until 2040, although a loophole allows for low-enriched uranium imports until 2028 if necessary.

The global uranium market reacted quickly after the U.S. elections, sparking speculation on how a potential re-election of Donald Trump might affect Russia’s dominance in the U.S. nuclear fuel market. Despite efforts to find alternative sources, the future remains uncertain as the U.S. continues to depend on Russian uranium.