Swedish Migration Agency revises asylum seeker forecast for 2024 to lowest level since 1997

The Swedish Migration Agency has revised its forecast for the number of asylum seekers in 2024, decreasing the estimate from 12,000 to 10,000, marking the lowest figure since 1997. The agency expects the number of asylum applications to continue declining in the coming years.

“We see that year after year, there are fewer asylum applications coming in,” says Maria Mindhammar, the agency’s director general, in a recent interview. For the upcoming year, around 9,500 asylum seekers are anticipated in Sweden, with projections indicating that figures will drop further due to the EU’s migration and asylum pact, despite ongoing global conflicts.

Mindhammar notes that Sweden has not experienced significant pressure compared to other countries, as discussions around entering Europe often revolve around external borders. Sweden’s geographical position is such that it is not as close to nations that host a large number of asylum seekers.

The stringent migration policies implemented by the Tidö parties may contribute to the decline in asylum seekers opting for Sweden. Mindhammar points out, “We see that the migration policy in a country influences individuals’ choices about where they intend to go, and there has been a noticeable decrease.”

Overall, the agency’s current outlook reflects broader trends affecting migration patterns across Europe.