Population changes to reshape electoral representation in Finland by 2040

Population development will alter the number of representatives in Finland’s electoral districts in the coming years. According to an estimate by consultancy firm MDI, the biggest loser will be Southeast Finland, while the most significant gains will be in Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa. This estimate is based on MDI’s 2024 population forecast, published Wednesday, which provides a projection of how parliamentary seats will be allocated across electoral districts by 2040.

The number of representatives each district selects is proportional to its population compared to other districts. Finland is divided into 13 electoral districts, with the allocation of seats determined by the number of Finnish citizens residing in each district as of the last day of October preceding the elections. The calculation involves dividing the population of each district by the total number of Finnish citizens and multiplying the result by 199.

Under the projection for 2040, Southeast Finland could see its number of representatives decrease from the current 15 to 13, losing two seats. Conversely, Uusimaa’s count would rise from 37 to 39, and Pirkanmaa’s from 20 to 22. Helsinki and Varsinais-Suomi would each gain one representative.

There would be losses for Vaasa, Häme, Satakunta, and Savo-Karjala, each losing one seat, while Oulu, Lapland, Central Finland, and Åland would maintain their current numbers.

MDI indicates that the preservation of Lapland’s six representatives is crucial, as declining seat numbers increase pressure for merging with other districts. Some districts have previously lost representatives due to population trends, including Southeast Finland and Lapland in the last election.

MDI’s study also highlighted the impact of immigration on population structure, suggesting that high immigration could increase Uusimaa’s parliamentary representation. With a potential population approaching six million by 2040, the dynamics of immigration will significantly influence Finland’s political landscape.