Gunnar predicts Democrats will win House but lose Senate

Lawyer Gunnar Birgisson expects Democrats to take control of the US House of Representatives while Republicans retain the Senate in the coming congressional elections, according to an interview published by mbl.is. He does not expect a sweeping Democratic victory and says it is unclear how the two parties would work together on major issues if control of Congress is split.

Voters will elect all 435 members of the House and about one-third of the Senate’s 100 members. Birgisson, who lived and worked in the United States for many years, including as a lawyer in Washington, discussed the election outlook and the challenges facing both parties on mbl.is’s Spursmál programme.

“I would say they will win the House, although it won’t be a landslide,” Birgisson said. He expects Republicans to have a narrow edge in the Senate.

Household finances could shape voters’ choices

Birgisson said voters often judge a president’s performance by their own financial circumstances, asking whether they and their families are better off than before. He referred to Ronald Reagan’s well-known question about whether people were better off than they had been four years earlier.

Inflation and everyday costs may matter more to voters than broader debates about the United States’ position in the world. “What people often ask themselves is what the price of gas and eggs is,” he said, adding that high prices can make voters want political change.

For that reason, Birgisson said, Donald Trump’s unpopularity alone would not guarantee Democrats victory in the next presidential election. The party also needs to develop its own policies and find a candidate able to unite different groups of voters.

He said Democrats have struggled to define themselves beyond opposition to Trump. The party includes groups with differing priorities, making it difficult to bring them together.

Birgisson urges caution over polling

Birgisson also cautioned against placing too much trust in polls used in political campaigning and fundraising. He recalled supporting Democrats in Texas, where campaign messages had suggested a much tighter race than the eventual result.

He received repeated requests for donations and contributed to the campaign. The experience has made him sceptical of claims that Democrats are close to winning Republican strongholds.

He said some polls are conducted scientifically, but questioned how results are sometimes used to persuade supporters to give more money to particular campaigns.

If Republicans retain the Senate, Birgisson said, that could matter for further judicial appointments by Trump. If Democrats take the House, the relationship between the president and Congress could develop in uncertain ways.