Spohr says small states must unite as world order frays

Historian Kristina Spohr says small states need to stand together as the international order comes apart, Morgunblaðið reported. She sees similarities between Icelanders and Finns, saying both know who they are, stand their ground and understand their position.

Spohr, a professor of history at the London School of Economics, was in Iceland for a workshop on world order and polar geopolitics organised by the LSE and the University of Iceland. The event was held in connection with the 40th anniversary of the leaders’ summit at Höfði.

Of Finnish-German heritage, Spohr specialises in German history since the end of the Second World War and has studied how international systems have formed and changed, including after the war and the end of the Cold War in 1989 to 1991.

In her address, she examined global affairs after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, comparing current developments with the changes to the international system in 1945 and 1991. She described a “poly-crisis”, with wars in Europe and the Middle East as the United States, Russia and China compete for global control, influence and power. The international order that has held for more than 80 years is visibly coming apart, she said.

Spohr singled out the role of the United States, arguing that leaders, rather than abstract historical forces, are deliberately driving the change. She recalled the country’s former role as a “benign hegemon”, pointing to US leaders at earlier turning points, including Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman in 1945 and George H. W. Bush in 1989 to 1991.

US policy at those times was also driven by national interests, Spohr said, including security, influence, stability and peace. Having allies and working through international organisations was preferable, she said, but American leadership was not purely selfless.

After the Second World War, US leaders knew they were helping create a new world order based on international law and new institutions, Spohr said. The United States also wielded “soft power” through its culture, films and music, which appealed to countries in the West and in Eastern Europe under Soviet control.

She described the United States as an “empire by invitation” and the Soviet Union, which kept countries behind the Iron Curtain through the Red Army, as an “empire by command”. Spohr said there are now three leaders who are disruptive forces, and that Donald Trump sees himself as one of them.