Bad weather could shorten warning before next eruption

Bad weather could reduce the warning time before a possible eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula, geophysicist Páll Einarsson told mbl.is, as monitoring equipment may become less sensitive to ground movements.

The latest measurements show continued ground uplift and magma accumulation at Svartsengi, a trend that has been ongoing for about a year. Páll said the measurements do not indicate when or how the next event will occur, but he considers it likely that another eruption would be larger and give less warning.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office’s risk assessment continues to identify one more eruption as the most likely scenario, and the latest deformation readings have not changed that assessment. Páll said magma pressure in the system is increasing each day and must be taken into account in preparedness planning.

He urged continued caution in Grindavík, particularly during unsettled weather. In poor conditions, monitoring instruments may be less sensitive to earthquakes and other ground movements, potentially shortening the warning before an eruption.

Páll said experience from other volcanic activity, especially the Krafla Fires of 1975 to 1984, suggests that warning signs can become weaker and less distinct as a series of eruptions and magma intrusions continues, even as eruptions grow larger. He said this could also happen during the current activity, but stressed that many scenarios remain possible.