Magma intrusion remains likeliest scenario near Svartsengi

A magma intrusion from beneath Svartsengi toward the Sundhnúksgígar crater row remains the most likely scenario, the Icelandic Met Office said in a notice reported by mbl.is. Such an intrusion could lead to an eruption, but officials cannot predict when the next event will occur.

Deformation measurements show that the ground is still rising at Svartsengi. Models based on the measurements indicate that the volume beneath the area continues to change at a fairly steady rate, suggesting pressure is building at a magma accumulation zone several kilometres underground.

Earthquake activity remains low in the magma dike. Some activity has been recorded near Víkur, west of Grindavík. A magnitude 2.5 earthquake there on Oct. 14 was the largest recorded in the area since June.

The Met Office said earthquakes near Víkur are thought to be linked to increased stress in the crust around Grindavík, caused by the uplift at Svartsengi. The increased stress leads to more release of tension and, in turn, earthquakes.

As long as the ground continues to rise at Svartsengi, a short warning period should be expected, as with previous magma intrusions and eruptions in the crater row. InSAR measurements from Aug. 11 to Oct. 16, 2026, also show continued ground deformation at Svartsengi.

The last eruption in the Sundhnúksgígar crater row ended on Aug. 5, 2025. It was the ninth eruption there since the current eruption sequence began on Dec. 18, 2023. Three eruptions had also occurred elsewhere on the Reykjanes Peninsula since 2021, at Geldingadalir, Meradalir and Litli-Hrútur.