Sitra warns climate change could erase Finland’s welfare state
Wednesday 7th October 2026 on 00:15 in
Finland
Finland is not preparing adequately for a warming climate, and its welfare state could disappear under the bleakest of three scenarios, Yle reports. A new review by Sitra says adaptation efforts are fragmented and under-resourced.
The review, prepared by Sitra experts Eero Jalava and Jenna Lähdemäki-Pekkinen, examines how climate change and biodiversity loss could affect Finnish society through 2040. It includes nearly 50 proposals for decision-makers and argues that preparing in advance costs less than repairing damage later.
Finland is warming at twice the global average rate, threatening forests, agriculture, cities and the economy. The experts say decision-makers need a comprehensive assessment of the economic effects, including the risks to the forestry industry.
Wetter winters, less frozen ground and drier springs could increase wind damage to forests. Choices made now will also affect which tree species can withstand drought and new pests, Jalava says. In agriculture, the experts urge protection of soil condition and wider use of crop rotation.
Finland could also increase food exports, Lähdemäki-Pekkinen says. The country already has substantial green electricity production and could become a leading electricity exporter in Europe. In cities, more trees and shade could help keep public spaces comfortable during hotter summers.
Sitra’s most optimistic scenario, called the path of renewal, assumes successful global emissions cuts and adaptation. Nature in Finland could recover, with improvements in the condition of peatlands, forests and waterways. Even in this scenario, however, Finland would be 3.3 degrees Celsius warmer than before the industrial era by the end of the century.
In the contradictory path scenario, Finland would be 6.5 degrees warmer than before the industrial era. The review also outlines a third, darkest scenario, in which the welfare state disappears.
The review says the scale of future warming depends largely on how quickly emissions are reduced. It also notes that the summer heat in central and southern Europe brought broken temperature records, dried-up rivers and an estimated economic cost of as much as 180 billion euros.