Social Democrats widen lead over Independence Party

The Social Democratic Alliance has widened its lead over the Independence Party by nearly three percentage points, according to a Gallup poll reported by mbl.is. The alliance gained about one point since the previous poll, while the Independence Party lost about two.

The September survey, Gallup’s first since Iceland’s August 29 referendum, found that 52.8% of voters opposed restarting membership talks with the European Union. The Social Democratic Alliance remains the country’s largest party, with nearly 31% support, which would give it 23 parliamentary seats if an election were held now. The Independence Party has nearly 25% support and would win 18 seats.

The Centre Party is at 15%, enough for 11 seats. Viðreisn gained almost one percentage point to reach 10.6%, which would give it seven seats. The Progressive Party is just under 6%, or four seats.

The Social Democratic Alliance and Viðreisn, both of which supported a yes vote in the referendum, gained about two percentage points between them. Support for the Independence Party, the Centre Party and the People’s Party fell by a combined two points. The People’s Party is at 4%, nearly one point lower than in the previous poll; it has recorded a result this low only once before since 2021.

The Left-Green Movement has 3.7% support, the Pirates 2.7% and the Socialists 2.4%. None would win a parliamentary seat. Support for the government stands at 49%, down one point. The governing parties would together win 30 seats, losing their current parliamentary majority.