Moderates summon polling institutes after outperforming election surveys

The Moderates have called for a meeting with all polling institutes after performing significantly better in Sweden’s election than pre-election surveys suggested, SVT reported. The party says it wants an explanation for what it describes as a recurring underestimation.

Moderates deputy party secretary and election campaign chief Martin Borgs said the party will invite representatives from every polling institute to examine why it has been underestimated in three consecutive election campaigns.

“We need to get to the bottom of why the Moderates are systematically underestimated,” Borgs said.

The party is expected to receive 19.9 percent of the vote, up from 19.1 percent in the previous election. That is also considerably higher than the 15.8 percent recorded in an SVT and Verian poll published on the Friday before election day.

Borgs said the polls had influenced media coverage of the party. If reports describe a “decline for the Moderates” while the party is actually running a strong campaign and gaining momentum, he said, that affects the media image.

He acknowledged that polls published before election day are intended to show the current situation rather than predict the final result. However, he questioned whether the change from 15.8 percent on the Friday to 19.9 percent on election day could be explained solely by a strong debate performance from party leader Ulf Kristersson.

Asked whether media organisations should stop publishing opinion polls, Borgs said they would probably continue to do so, but should at least investigate why the Moderates are repeatedly underestimated.

He also said it was worth examining whether the Liberals would have passed the electoral threshold without the polls, although he said that was not his main focus at present.