UN report says 1.5C warming limit is no longer achievable

It is no longer considered realistic to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5C in the long term, mbl.is reported, citing a statement from Iceland’s Ministry for the Environment, Energy and Climate. The statement referred to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme, which describes the global climate situation as serious.

However, the report says it is still possible to influence how severe and widespread the effects of climate change will be.

“Although it will not be possible to keep warming within the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement, it remains highly important whether warming reaches 1.6C, 1.8C or more,” the statement said.

The risks increase with every tenth of a degree, including a faster rise in sea levels, more rapid ecosystem loss, and a greater risk of heatwaves, wildfires and major changes to glaciers and ice sheets. The risk of irreversible changes to the climate and ecosystems also increases. Some effects could continue even if global temperatures later fall, according to the statement.

Risk to Atlantic circulation

The report places increased emphasis on the importance of climate action in the coming years to limit further warming and reverse the trend.

It also highlights the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, as one of Earth’s major systems where the risk of irreversible change increases as warming intensifies.

AMOC transports heat north through the Atlantic and contributes significantly to the relatively mild climate in Iceland and elsewhere in the Nordic region. The circulation is expected to weaken as warming continues, while the risk of collapse will increase with higher temperatures.

Keeping maximum warming below 2C could significantly reduce the weakening of the system, the statement said.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office has warned that substantial weakening or a collapse of AMOC could cause local cooling in Iceland and elsewhere in the North Atlantic, even if the Earth as a whole continues to warm.

Minister says action must accelerate

“This is a serious situation. The 1.5C limit is slipping from our grasp, but every tenth of a degree matters, and that is why we must not back down or lose hope,” Environment, Energy and Climate Minister Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson said in the statement.

He said the green transition offered significant opportunities for society, the economy, the environment and future generations.

“We need to focus our efforts on what genuinely reduces emissions. Now we simply need to do more, faster,” Jóhannsson said.