Sweden’s security situation continues to deteriorate

Sweden’s security situation has further worsened due to Russian escalation in the Baltic Sea region and shifting US security policy, according to a new report by the Swedish Defence Commission presented on Friday.

The commission, which includes government and parliamentary representatives, warns that Russia could test NATO cohesion with military probes in the near future if political conditions are deemed favorable, even if traditional military requirements for an attack are not met.

“Russian military advances, for example to test NATO cohesion and the credibility of Article 5, could occur in the near term if the Kremlin assesses that political conditions are advantageous, even if military balance does not meet traditional attack criteria,” the report states.

It also notes that while the relationship with the US remains critical, Europe must prepare to take greater responsibility as American foreign and security policy has become increasingly unpredictable under the current administration, marked by rapid shifts, transactionalism, harsher rhetoric, and a greater willingness to use military force unilaterally, sometimes without international legal backing.

The commission’s cross-party members agree that defense buildup—both military and civil—must accelerate. “The deteriorated security situation reinforces the need to rapidly build defense capabilities, with time as a critical factor in all political and agency decisions on personnel, equipment, and infrastructure,” the report says.

The Defence Commission serves as a consultative body between the government and parliamentary parties, providing the basis for Sweden’s defense policy decisions.