Russia’s military buildup may be bid to retain power, expert says

European intelligence agencies warn Russia could attack NATO within a few years, with experts citing imperialist, defensive, or domestic political motives.

Magnus Christiansson, a senior lecturer in war studies at the Swedish Defence University, said the Kremlin may be using an external enemy to justify a war economy and cling to power.

“It could be a way to stay in power—by creating an external enemy,” Christiansson said.

Russia has shifted to a war economy, yet continues to prioritize military expansion despite heavy spending in Ukraine. Military towns are being built near the Finnish border.

Moscow claims the buildup is defensive, but Christiansson said imperial ambitions may also drive it, with Russia viewing the Baltic states as part of a historical Russian sphere.

NATO sources suggest Gotland could be targeted if Russia moves on the Suwałki Corridor, the land strip between Poland and Lithuania separating Belarus from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

“We will of course defend the island,” said Andreas Gustafsson, commander of the Gotland Regiment.

Sweden’s preparedness remains a question. During the Aurora 26 military exercise, Ukrainian drone units simulated an attack on Gotland, overwhelming Swedish forces.

“If you bring in the world champions in drone warfare, of course we take a beating,” Gustafsson said. “But we broke off the drills, regrouped, and adapted—that’s how we train.”