Cuba attack likely as Trump seeks distraction from Iran, experts say

US president Donald Trump may launch a military attack on Cuba as a diversion from his setbacks in Iran, with Norwegian experts and US media pointing to growing tensions between the two countries. Political scientist Iver Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, told Dagbladet he believes an attack could come just after the summer holiday, citing Trump’s need for a quick victory.

Relations between Cuba and the United States have deteriorated sharply since January. On Monday, reports emerged that Cuba had received over 300 military drones from Russia and Iran and was considering using them against US targets. Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel has warned that a US attack would trigger a “bloodbath with unimaginable consequences.”

Foreign correspondent Nahal Toosi of Politico recently wrote that “Trump can actually go on the attack against Cuba,” adding that he may view the island as an easy win in his hunt for a rapid success. Neumann agreed, noting that “things are clearly not going his way in Iran, and it’s hard to see how Trump can emerge from that situation with his honor intact. He will lose more and more face, and if there’s one thing Trump dislikes, it’s losing face.”

Neumann identified both Cuba and Greenland as possible targets for diversionary action. “He might attack both, for all I know,” he said. However, he argued that Cuba is “extremely worn down” and that US relations with the island have been hostile since the 1959 revolution, making it a simpler option than Greenland, where an attack could cost him European support and potentially dissolve NATO.

Timing and motives

Neumann believes any US attack would occur before the November midterm elections as an attempt to impress the American public and bolster Republican chances. He also noted that Trump might take an entirely unexpected action, adding: “He doesn’t hesitate to create problems where none exist, so there are plenty of areas to choose from. But Cuba and Greenland stand out. He is already on the warpath there.”

Hilmar Mjelde, a professor of political science at Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, pointed to the Wall Street Journal’s January report that Trump seeks regime change in Cuba by the end of the year. “The question is what that means in practice,” Mjelde said. “It could mean a Venezuelan solution, which was a leadership change without regime change.” That reference is to the 3 January attack in which Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was abducted and put on trial in the US on drug trafficking charges.

Since the Venezuela operation, Trump has increased pressure on Cuba, urging it to “make a deal soon” or face consequences. The US has also prepared an indictment against former Cuban president Raul Castro, a US official said earlier in May.

Historical ambitions

Mjelde said the Trump administration would likely avoid creating a power vacuum in Cuba that could lead to chaos, criminal gangs, and new refugee flows toward the US. “Trump sees this historically. He wants to build his legacy as a particularly consequential president. Forcing regime change in Cuba is exactly the kind of act a president would be remembered for,” Mjelde said.

The professor added that Trump believes US air and naval power can be used to “topple troublesome regimes,” and that Cuba fits that description. The goal of any US attack, Mjelde said, would be “a US-friendly regime that is politically stable and capitalist,” consistent with longstanding US objectives.

Cuba has lived under strict US sanctions since the 1960s. Following the Venezuela operation, Trump imposed an oil blockade, and only a few Russian oil tankers have since been allowed through. Earlier in May, Cuba’s energy minister said the country had run out of both heating oil and diesel, and there are growing shortages of food and medicine, according to NTB.

Tags: Cuba, Donald Trump, US foreign policy