El Niño could become strongest on record, warn climate experts

The El Niño climate phenomenon may develop into the most powerful event ever recorded, potentially triggering unprecedented extreme weather, according to meteorologists and climate researchers.

Seasonal climate models indicate a high probability of El Niño emerging within the next three months, with some projections suggesting it could surpass the intensity of past events, reports NTB. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms rising sea surface temperatures but notes uncertainty remains in the forecasts.

Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Florida, warned of historic weather disruptions. “I think we’re going to see weather events we’ve never seen in modern history before,” he told the Associated Press. El Niño, a cyclical warming of equatorial Pacific waters, alters global weather patterns, while its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures.

WMO’s head of climate prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, stated that current data strongly suggests El Niño will develop, with further strengthening likely in the coming months. Climate researcher Daniel Swain of the California Institute for Water Resources cautioned that while a “super El Niño” isn’t guaranteed, “the potential is there for something truly extraordinary.”

Global impacts: heatwaves, floods, and economic ripple effects

If the Pacific releases significant heat, it could accelerate climate systems, leading to chaotic conditions, Berardelli explained. Expected consequences include intensified heatwaves, worsened droughts in some regions, and increased atmospheric moisture fueling severe flooding elsewhere. The phenomenon may also weaken the Atlantic hurricane season, as Pacific warmth dominates, reducing tropical storms in areas like the Caribbean.

Norway, however, will likely experience milder direct effects, according to Borgar Aamaas, a researcher at Cicero. “Globally, it will get warmer, but for Norway, it’s more uncertain. We’re too far away, and Atlantic sea temperatures—which drive low-pressure activity—play a bigger role here,” he said. Possible outcomes include slightly warmer, drier conditions and colder winters, similar to recent patterns. Indirectly, Norway could face disruptions in global food production and trade.

Rasmus Benestad, a climate expert at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, echoed this assessment. “Norway is mostly affected indirectly. The connections are complex, but everything is interlinked,” he said. Short-term benefits might include increased demand for Norwegian fish if Peruvian fisheries decline due to high sea temperatures, or higher oil prices if North American winters grow colder. “But these are only temporary gains,” Benestad stressed. “The long-term consequences for the planet are severe.”

Historical data shows El Niño can devastate regions like Australia, Latin America, and southern Africa with drought, while increasing rainfall near the equator. Benestad noted that reduced water levels in the Panama Canal—critical for global shipping—could have dramatic economic repercussions. “As always, climate change hits the poorest hardest, especially women, children, and the elderly,” he added.

Current projections suggest this El Niño could begin earlier than usual, possibly before summer, though forecasts remain uncertain. A “super El Niño” would amplify existing inequalities in climate vulnerability worldwide.