Moderates confident ahead of election but risk losing centrist voters to Sweden Democrats

Sweden’s Moderate Party is projecting confidence as it heads into the election campaign, but its alliance with the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) could alienate the centrist voters it needs to retain power, according to an analysis by public broadcaster SVT Nyheter.

Party leader Ulf Kristersson closed the Moderates’ national conference on Saturday with a pledge to increase monthly income for an “average family with children” by 5,000 SEK (around €430) if re-elected. The event, marked by blue-and-yellow balloons and a campaign anthem, radiated optimism, though recent polls show the opposition gaining ground.

The Moderates have staked their campaign on presenting a “united blue-yellow government” as their key strength, contrasting it with a “divided left” under former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. However, this strategy carries risks: it dilutes the party’s own profile and may deter swing voters who traditionally choose between the Moderates and the Social Democrats (S).

Economic slump and SD ministers weigh on support

Despite focusing on core conservative issues—economic policy, law and order, and national security—the Moderates have struggled to gain traction. Analysts point to several factors: prolonged economic stagnation squeezing household budgets, the controversial deportation of well-integrated teenagers clashing with the party’s “hard work pays off” messaging, and Kristersson’s leadership style. The decision to include SD ministers in government has also sparked internal concern.

Just a few years ago, the Moderates aimed to distance themselves from SD, positioning themselves as the “natural centre” of Swedish politics to appeal to urban voters. Now, they are campaigning on a joint government with SD, a shift that could cement the far-right party’s dominance on the right if the current coalition loses.

To secure re-election, the Moderates must convince undecided voters that their alliance offers stability—and that the presence of SD ministers will not drive away the centrists they need. If they fail, the party risks a historic defeat, with SD emerging as the leading force on the right.