Coffee prices set to drop as Brazil expects record harvest

Swedish consumers can expect lower coffee prices in the near future, according to a new market analysis by Coop Sweden, as a record coffee harvest in Brazil drives down global bean prices.

Retail prices are projected to fall by an average of 8–10%, or roughly 14–15 Swedish kronor (about €1.25) per kilogram, Coop’s pricing manager Rebecca Widegren told public broadcaster SVT Nyheter on Sunday. A standard 400–500g package could soon cost between 70–80 kronor (€6.20–7.10), with further discounts likely during promotional periods.

“We’re already seeing lower coffee prices—around 14–15 kronor cheaper per kilo,” Widegren said.

The drop follows a peak in coffee bean prices last year, caused by extreme drought in Brazil, flooding in Vietnam, financial market instability, and high inflation. With Brazil now forecasting a bumper harvest, raw material costs have fallen sharply.

Coop anticipates prices will decline further this autumn, with the full impact expected by early 2027, provided no major weather disruptions occur. “Given the current coffee supply and no expected storms or drastic weather changes, we can expect the raw material price to keep falling,” Widegren said.

While raw bean costs are decreasing, other factors—such as shipping, currency fluctuations, logistics, and energy prices—may still influence final shelf prices, she added.