Finnish defence expert disputes drone identification in Kouvola incident

A drone that crashed in Kouvola, Finland, last week was not the Ukrainian AN-196 model as previously reported by the Finnish Air Force, according to retired engineering colonel Jyri Kosola, the former research director of the Finnish Defence Forces.

Kosola and his team analysed images of the downed drone and concluded it was a smaller, less advanced Chaika (Russian for “Seagull”) model, with a wingspan of 2.5 metres—significantly smaller than the AN-196’s 6.7-metre span. The operational range also differs: the Chaika can travel up to 750 kilometres, while the AN-196 has a range of 1,000–2,000 kilometres.

“The key differences are in size and wing structure,” Kosola told Finnish broadcaster Yle, adding that the Chaika is constructed from cheaper materials.

The shorter range raises strategic questions. If confirmed as a Chaika, the drone could not have been launched from Ukraine, Kosola noted. He speculated it may have been deployed from Belarus or even Russian territory, as Ukraine has previously smuggled drones into Russia for similar operations. Launching from the sea, he said, would be less likely due to the lack of terrain obstacles for detection.

“It’s unlikely it was sent from any country supporting Ukraine, as that would pose an enormous risk for them,” Kosola said.

The discrepancy casts doubt on the Finnish Air Force’s drone identification capabilities. Kosola plans to submit his findings to the Defence Forces. Finland has now recorded four drone incidents, with the latest crash occurring in Iitti over the weekend. Previous drones were found in Kouvola, Luumäki, and Parikkala.

Yle reported it had sought comment from the Air Force, but no response was provided by the time of publication.