Russia’s Kola Peninsula a likely Ukrainian drone target but stray attacks unlikely in Finland

The Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia is a key strategic military hub and a probable target for Ukrainian long-range drone strikes, though Finland’s northern Lapland region faces little risk from stray attacks, according to defence experts.

Retired engineering colonel Jyri Kosola told Finnish broadcaster Yle that the Kola Peninsula—home to critical Russian military bases and ports—ranks alongside Moscow and St. Petersburg as a top-tier strategic priority for the Kremlin. He assessed that Ukraine could begin deploying mass-produced long-range drones capable of reaching the region within roughly five years.

The distance from Kyiv to Kola is nearly 2,000 kilometres, already within drone range, but Kosola noted that large-scale production of such systems remains cost-prohibitive for now. Last summer, Ukraine struck Murmansk region targets using drones launched from inside Russia itself—an operation that prompted local media to warn civilians to report suspicious aerial activity.

Heikki Autto, chair of Finland’s Defence Committee, dismissed concerns over errant drones threatening Lapland. While acknowledging that Kola’s military infrastructure—including the Northern Fleet’s submarine base, nuclear power plant, and energy terminals—makes it a plausible Ukrainian target, he called the risk to Finnish territory “highly unlikely.”

Autto pointed to Finland’s incoming F-35 fighter jets, set to arrive in Rovaniemi by late 2024, as a boost to aerial surveillance. Though not foolproof, the aircraft will improve detection capabilities. “Finns remain fully safe, whether at home or travelling,” he stated.

The Kola Peninsula hosts Russia’s only ice-free Arctic port in Murmansk, a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet, and key export routes for oil, gas, coal, and minerals. Its military significance includes the Northern Fleet’s headquarters and nuclear-capable submarines. The region’s 300,000 residents in Murmansk—the world’s largest city north of the Arctic Circle—rely on year-round maritime access for civilian and military logistics.

Finland’s eastern border in Lapland, where roughly 20,000 people live in municipalities like Salla, Savukoski, and Inari, sits about 70 kilometres from Russia’s Alakurtti base. Recent drone incidents in southeastern Finland (Kouvola and Luumäki) followed Ukrainian strikes on ports in Vyborg and Leningrad regions, but experts stress Kola’s remoteness reduces spillover risks.