Seismic activity raises alert levels for potential volcanic eruptions near Grindavík, Iceland

Seismic activity on the Reykjanes Peninsula has prompted an increase in alert levels, indicating a heightened risk of volcanic eruptions or lava flows within the next two to three weeks. The Icelandic Meteorological Office reports ongoing land uplift in the region, which has remained stable over recent weeks.

In light of the latest data, the risk assessment has been elevated, with significant danger now posed to the vicinity of Grindavík. Current modeling suggests that approximately 16 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated since the last eruption. It is estimated that 13 to 19 cubic meters more must be added to the magma chamber before an eruption occurs.

Two primary scenarios are considered most likely should an eruption take place. The first scenario predicts that the eruption will occur between Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur, potentially allowing lava to reach Grindavíkurvegur near Þorbjörn in under 90 minutes, and Grindavíkurvegur near Svartsengi in less than three hours. The second scenario is centered south of Sundhnúk, near Hagafell or south of it, where lava could quickly flow to Nesvegi and Suðurstrandavegi within a similar timeframe. This lava flow could potentially block evacuation routes within around six hours.

Authorities are closely monitoring the situation as developments unfold.